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Post by pasacancha on Nov 7, 2008 20:40:53 GMT -5
I'm just purely speculating here but ater seeing the price drop substantially today I was trying to figure out the current "float" or shares held by short termers. Now that the merger is complete my guess would be Duran is now held long term by about 75-80% of shareholders resulting in a float of 20-25% or 12-15 million shares. If DRV price drops much more we could hopefully see a significant amount of this "float" bought up.
DRV oustanding shares 27,806,793 + 31,027,375 = 58,834,168 Of these we can assume most of the original 27,806,793 are tightly held or next to no float (the price doesn't drop trading alone)
Then at the MMG AGM about 28,000,000 shares were represented, add another 3,750,000 overseas votes not counted and not to mention potentially others who didn't receive proxies = 31,750,000 or 15,875,000 equivalent DRV 27,806,793 + 15,875,000 = 43,681,793 resulting in a float of 15,152,375 or 25%
Institutions hold (or held) approximately 8,000,000? or 4,000,000 eq DRV If the institutions have sold then 27,806,793 + 15,875,000 - 4,000,000 = 39,681,793 resulting in a float of 19,152,375 or 32%
Add the interest of buying MMG since the proposed Merger (assuming they are 100% long term which is unlikely): MMG volume since March about 16,867,800 or 8,433,900 eq DRV
With the institutions 43,681,793 + 8,433,900 = 52,115,693 resulting in a float of 6,718,475 or 11%
Without the institutions 39,681,793 + 8,433,900 = 48,115,693 resulting in a float of 10,718,475 or 18%
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Post by caveman on Nov 10, 2008 17:36:35 GMT -5
if you really think about it there is a very small amount of sellers bringing the price down. so what if the short term holders are really only about 5-10% or so? that would mean 3-6million shares not held very strong. if drv dropped to 10 cents these shares could be bought up for $300-600k. i know i would want to buy more shares at 10-15 cents. hmm maybe time for a new poll. ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
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